John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015,
p.72
creation of a net assessment group (NAG)
p.73
“diagnosis of problems and opportunities, rather than recommended actions”.
For Marshall, the focus on diagnosis rather than solutions was especially significant.149
basis for diagnosis.
do we have problems?
if so, how big is it?
is it getting worse or better?
what are the underlying causes?
p.83
Pedagogically, Marshall believes that allowing others to work out how to do a net assessment is preferrable to him trying to explain it to them.
that of a shepherd guiding others' intellectual growth to help them arrive at their own conclusions through an intensive process.6
It must be learned experientially.
p.38
intellectual comfort zones rather than address harder questions.
pp.38-39
Observing this approach reinforced an enduring lesson for Marshall: mediocre answers to good questions were more important and useful than splendid answers to poor questions.114
p.37
Kelly AFB in San Antonio, where the Air Force conducted most of its COMINT analysis.109
p.38
Loftus and Marshall's rare access to COMINT helped them understand this disconnect, though they could not share this information to shatter their colleagues' illusions.
source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
Schutte, John M., 1976
Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.
UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
local filename: casting net assessment.txt
alternative short-cut: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war (2)
____________________________________
p.38
intellectual comfort zones rather than address harder questions.
____________________________________
Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008
p.201
to draw the lines between environmental and economic interests.
p.202
His staff scouted ahead trying to find out who had the big picture on Klamath.
p.203
Cheney to Sue Ellen Wooldridge, over a phone call
“If we're going to put a bunch of farmers out of business, we've got a problem. We've got a massive problem.”
p.203
“I never got any directives”, Wooldrige said, only questions:
“What is the status?
What is happening?
What decisions do you need to make?
What discretion do you have?”
(Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008, )
____________________________________
p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
The technical lectures
In lecture 1, “controlled and uncontrolled variation”, Deming introduced the Shewhart statistical control chart as a tool for bringing a production process into control. He set the tone for this lecture with the opening remark, “Variability is a rule in nature. Repetitions of any procedure will produce variable results.”
Deming followed with definitions of controlled and uncontrolled variation, principally in terms of whether it is (controlled variation) or is not (uncontrolled variation) profitable to try to determine the causes. This economic definition is the same spirit as that offered in the original book of Shewhart (1931). Deming then called uncontrolled
variation a type of “trouble”, and introduced the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.” Deming offered the control chart as the most “economical solution” to this problem.
source:
what deming told the Japanese in 1950
DeminginJapanin1950.pdf
Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university
QMJ 94 Fall
The primary source documents are the published lecture transcripts that Deming considered authentic.
The transcripts how that Deming introduced to the Japanese a product design cycle of Shewhart that is distinct from the management process that the Japanese later came to call the plan-do-check-act cycle.
Deming cycle of the plan-do-check-act (PDCA) cycle development, variation, evolution, iteration
Figure 2 The Deming/Shewhart design cycle (Deming 1951), p.14
Figure 3 The Deming PDSA cycle (Deming 1986)., p.15
Figure 4 The Mizuno PDCA control circle (Mizuno 1984), p.16
____________________________________
W. Edwards Deming., The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality, 2013
pp.248─249
Special causes of variation
The question is whether the variation arises from a special cause, or from common causes. A point outside the limits on a control chart indicates the existience of a special cause. Special causes are what Shewhart called assignable causes. The name is not important; the concept is.
Statistical techniques, based as they are on the theory of probability, enable us to govern the risk of being wrong in the interpretation of a test. Statistical techniques defend us, almost unerringly, against the costly and demoralizing practice of blaming variability and rejections on to the wrong person or machine. At the same time, they detect almost unerringly the existence of a special cause when it is worth searching for.
p.251
there is a difference; the only question is how big is the difference?
p.253
Our words theory and theater come from the Greek ... to see, to understand
p.266
The economics of a proper sample design.
The statistician does not take unnecessary chances with sampling errors; he cannot leave them to judgment. He has them under control and knows how much it will cost to reduce them to any desired degree. He knows that reliability beyond what can actually be utilized in formulating decisions on the basis of the data is sheer waste of resources. His guiding philosophy is a very practical one, namely, to minimize in the long run, the net losses arising from two kinds of mistakes.
p.300
Shewhart charts were taught in Japan as statistical tools for the economic detection of the existence of special cause of variation, not as tools that actually find the cause.
(The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality / by W. Edwards Deming., 1. total quality management., 2. leadership.,
3. industrial management., HD62.15.D459 2013, 658.4'092--dc23, edited by Joyce Nilsson Orsini, Ph.D., [2013])
____________________________________
the first private awareness that human error is a symptom of trouble deeper inside a system, and to explain that failure, do not try to find where the people went wrong; instead, find out how people's assessments and actions made sense at the time, given the circumstances that surrounded them; What were they thinking? - “The reconstruction of the mindset begins not with the mind. It begins with the circumstances in which the mind found itself.”, Dekker (2002);--Heather Parker, Transport Canada slide presentation, titled, Investigating and Analysing Human and Organizational Factors, 2006-11-09;
____________________________________
•── “false positives.” : The first error is overdiagnosis--when an individual tests positive in the test but does not have cancer. Such individuals are called “false positives.” Men and women who falsely test positive find themselves trapped in the punitive stigma of cancer, the familiar cycle of anxiety and terror (and the desire to “do something”) that precipitates further testing and invasive treatment., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
• false
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
- fishing expedition
by Anthony Lane
p.65
To be accused of an offense that you haven't committed is a terrible slur, and it can lead to a galling miscarriage of justice [[ ? ]]. To be innocent of an offense and yet to confess your guilt ─ not for pathological reasons but purely to get ahead in the world ─ takes a certain panache.
(The current cinema, Over the limit, "Ferrari" and "The crime is mine", The new yorkers, January 1 & 8, 2024., p.65)
•── “false negatives” : The mirror image of overdiagnosis is underdiagnosis--an error in which a patient truly has cancer but does not test positive for it. Underdiagnosis falsely reassures patients of their freedom from disease. These men and women (“false negatives” in the jargon of epidemiology) enter a different punitive cycle--of despair, shock, and betrayal--once their disease, undetected by the screening test, is eventually uncovered when it becomes symptomatic., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
• false
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
- neglect
by Anthony Lane
p.65
To be accused of an offense that you haven't committed is a terrible slur, and it can lead to a galling miscarriage of justice. To be innocent of an offense and yet to confess your guilt ─ not for pathological reasons but purely to get ahead in the world ─ takes a certain panache [[ ?? ]].
(The current cinema, Over the limit, "Ferrari" and "The crime is mine", The new yorkers, January 1 & 8, 2024., p.65)
Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010 [ ]
pp.291-292
Suppose a new test has been invented in the laboratory to detect an early, presympotamic stage of a particular form of cancer, say, the level of a protein secreted by cancer cells into the serum. The first challenge for such a test is technical: its performance in the real world. Epidemiologists think of screening tests as possessing two characteristic performance errors. The first error is overdiagnosis--when an individual tests positive in the test but does not have cancer. Such individuals are called “false positives.” Men and women who falsely test positive find themselves trapped in the punitive stigma of cancer, the familiar cycle of anxiety and terror (and the desire to “do something”) that precipitates further testing and invasive treatment.
([ see pregnancy test ])
The mirror image of overdiagnosis is underdiagnosis--an error in which a patient truly has cancer but does not test positive for it. Underdiagnosis falsely reassures patients of their freedom from disease. These men and women (“false negatives” in the jargon of epidemiology) enter a different punitive cycle--of despair, shock, and betrayal--once their disease, undetected by the screening test, is eventually uncovered when it becomes symptomatic.
The trouble is that overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis are often intrinsically conjoined, locked perpetually on two ends of a seesaw. Screening tests that strive to limit overdiagnosis--by narrowing the criteria by which patients are classified as positive--often pay the price of increasing underdiagnosis because they miss patients that lie in the gray zone between positive and negative. An example helps to illustrate this tradeoff. Suppose--to use Egan's vivid metaphor--a spider is trying to invent a perfect web to capture flies out of the air. Increasing the density of that web, she finds, certainly increases the chances of capturing junk and debris floating through the air (false positives). Making the web less dense, in contrast, decreases the chances of catching real prey, but every time something is captured, chances are higher that it is a fly. In cancer, where both overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis come at high costs, finding that exquisite balance is often impossible. We want every cancer test to operate with perfect specificity and sensitivity. But the technologies for screening are not perfect. Screening tests thus routinely fail because they cannot even cross this preliminary hurdle--the rate of over- or underdiagnosis is unacceptably high.
(The emperor of all maladies : a biography of cancer, Siddhartha Mukherjee, 2010, )
____________________________________
the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
“Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ...”
“failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
false h 4 t a m a wnte
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”
false f 2 h 4 t a n t a wtde
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”
• false - The first error is over diagnosis
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• false - under diagnosis
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• The first error is [over diagnosis]. This is refer to as
“false positives” -- when during the assessment, evaluation, determination, investigation process (aedip), a problem is detected, but there is no problem.
- “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• the other type of error is [under diagnosis]. This is
refer to as “false negatives” -- an error in which truly there is a problem, but it was not detected (detection process, detective, investigator); and therefore, nothing is done to address the situation for various reasons and the reasoning process explanation (explanation of the reasoning process), after the fact when post mortem is performed.
- “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
The technical lectures
In lecture 1, “controlled and uncontrolled variation”, Deming introduced the Shewhart statistical control chart as a tool for bringing a production process into control. He set the tone for this lecture with the opening remark, “Variability is a rule in nature. Repetitions of any procedure will produce variable results.”
Deming followed with definitions of controlled and uncontrolled variation, principally in terms of whether it is (controlled variation) or is not (uncontrolled variation) profitable to try to determine the causes. This economic definition is the same spirit as that offered in the original book of Shewhart (1931). Deming then called uncontrolled
variation a type of “trouble”, and introduced the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.” Deming offered the control chart as the most “economical solution” to this problem.
source:
what deming told the Japanese in 1950
DeminginJapanin1950.pdf
Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university
QMJ 94 Fall
https://curiouscat.com/management/deming/deming-1950-japan-speech-mt-hakone
____________________________________
Niel Postman, Amusing ourselves to death : public discourse in the age of show business, new introduction by Andrew Postman [2005], [1985]
p.102
If on television, credibility replaces reality as the decisive test of truth-telling, political leaders need not trouble themselves very much with reality provided their performances consistently generate a sense of verisimilitude.
p.102
For the alternative possibilities are that one may look like a liar but be telling the truth; or even worse, look like a truth-teller but in fact be lying.
(Amusing ourselves to death./ Niel Postman, bibliography: p. 173., includes index., 1. mass media ── influence., P94.P63 1986, 302.2'34, 86-9513, A section of this book was supported by a commission from the Annenberg scholars program, Annenberg school of communications, university of southern california. SPecifically, portions of chapters six and seven formed part of a paper delivered at the scholars conference, “Creating meaning : literacies of our time”, February 1984., [1985] )
____________________________________
── There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement.
Edward de Bono, Lateral Thinking: a textbook of creativity, 1970, 1977, 1990
── the problem of no problem. One is blocked by the adequacy of the present arrangement from moving to a much better one.
── There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement.
pp.41-42
Problem solving
A problem does not have to be presented in a formal manner nor is it a matter for pencil and paper working out. A problem is simply the difference between what one has and what one wants. It may be a matter of avoiding something, of getting something, of getting rid of something, of getting to know what one wants.
There are three-types of problem:
• The first type of problem requires for its solution more information or better techniques for handling information.
• The second type of problem requires no new information but a rearrangement of information already available: an insight restructuring.
• The third type of problem is the problem of no problem. One is blocked by the adequacy of the present arrangement from moving to a much better one. There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement. The problem is to realize that ‘there is a problem’ to realize that ‘things can be improved’ and to define ‘this realization as a problem’.
The first type of problem can be solved by vertical thinking. The second and third type of problem require lateral thinking for their solution.
p.30
Vertical thinking is analytical, lateral thinking is provocative
One may consider three different attitude to the remark of a student who had come to the conclusion: “Ulysses was a hypocrite.”
1. “You are wrong, Ulysses was not a hypocrite.”
2. “How very interesting, tell me how you reached that conclusion.”
3. “very well. What happens next? How are you going to go forward from that idea?”
In order to be able to use provocative qualities of lateral thinking one must also be able to follow up with the selective qualities of vertical thinking.
p.35
Lateral thinking is a description of a process not of a result.
pp.35-36
It is always possible to describe a logical pathway in hindsight once a solution is spelled out. But being able to reach that solution by means of this hindsight pathway is another matter. One can demonstrate this quite simply by offering certain problems which are difficult to solve and yet when solved, the solution is obvious. In such cases, it is impossible to suppose that what make the problem difficult was lack of the elementary logic required.
It is characteristic of insight solutions and new ideas that they should be obvious after they have been found. In itself, this shows how insufficient logic is in practice, otherwise such simple solutions must have occurred much earlier.
p.36
In practical terms however, it is quite obvious that the hindsight demonstration of a logical pathway does not indicate that the solution would have been reached in this way.
p.37
Lateral thinking is more concerned with concept breaking, with provocation and disruption in order to allow the mind to restructure patterns.
p.37
There is nothing mysterious about lateral thinking. It is a way of handling information.
(Edward de Bono, Lateral Thinking: a textbook of creativity, 1970, 1977, 1990, )
____________________________________
·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα
____________________________________
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──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
(Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)
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──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
--
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