edward o. wilson, Letters to a young scientist, 2013 [ ]
p.74
The ideal scientist thinks like a poet and only later works like a bookkeeper. Keep in mind that innovators in both literature and science are basically dreamers and storytellers. In the early stages of the creation of both literature and science, everything in the mind is a story. There is an imagined ending, and usually an imagined beginning, and a selection of bits and pieces that might fit in between. In works of literature and science alike, any part can be changed, causing a ripple among the other parts, some of which are discarded and new ones added. The surviving fragments are variously joined and separated, and moved about as the story forms. One scenario emerges, then another. The scenarios, whether literary or scientific in nature, compete with one another. Some overlap. Words and sentences (or equations or experiments) are tried to make sense of the whole thing. Early on, an end to all the imagining is conceived. It arrives at a wonderous denouement (or scientific breakthrough). But is it the best, is it true? To bring the end safely home is the goal of the creative mind.
(Letters to a young scientist, by edward o. wilson, copyright © 2013)
____________________________________
Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010 [ ]
p.46
Even an ancient monster needs a name. To name an illness is to describe a certain condition of suffering--a literary act before it becomes a medical one. A patient, long before he becomes the subject of medical scrutiny, is, at first, simply a storyteller, a narrator of suffering--a traveler who has visited the kingdom of the ill. To relieve an illness, one must begin, then, by unburdening its story.
The names of ancient illnesses are condensed stories in their own right.
(The emperor of all maladies : a biography of cancer, Siddhartha Mukherjee, 2010, )
____________________________________
to change the world, change the metaphor.
Bill Moyers, Joseph Campbell
“If you want to change the world, change the metaphor. Change the story.”
—— Joseph Campbell
53:22
A Conversation with Bill Moyers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ8tlnrHVFw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ8tlnrHVFw
https://youtu.be/MJ8tlnrHVFw?t=3069
https://youtu.be/MJ8tlnrHVFw?t=3069
Twin Cities PBS
Published on Aug 31, 2017
... ... ...
51:09 I called him at his home in Hawaii and I
51:11 said, “Joe, I didn't ask you about God.
51:13 Would you come to New York? Let's do one
51:15 more show”, so he did, but when I was
51:17 leaving, when I was leaving Skywalker
51:21 Ranch for the last time, he walked with
51:23 me out to our car, and he said, “Are you going
51:26 stay in this?”, meaning you know, I not
51:28 been certain about journalism, not been
51:31 fixed in my trajectory, “Are you going to
51:35 stay in this work?” and I said, “Yes, I think so”
51:39 and he said, “Well, good!”, he said, “If you
51:41 want to change the world, change the
51:45 metaphor. Change the story.”
https://www.artsmedicineforhopeandhealing.com/poetry-baby-blog/the-power-of-myth-by-joseph-campbell-with-bill-moyers
____________________________________
Matthew Kelly, Rediscover catholictism, [2010]
Rediscover catholictism: a spiritual guide to living with passion & purpose, 2010
pp.130─131
To whom does the future belong? What will our society be like 20, 50, or 100 years from today?
The most powerful and influential position in any society is that of the story teller. Story tellers are not just the mythical cultural icon who dress up on Thursday afternoons and read stories to your children in local libraries and bookstores. Musicians are story tellers. Teachers, preachers, nurses, lawyers, priests, scientists, salespeople, artists, mothers, fathers, poets, philosophers, brothers, sisters, babysitters, grandparents ... we are all storytellers.
The future belongs to the storytellers and it belongs to us. What will it be like? Well, that depends very much on the stories we tell, the stories we listen to, and the stories we live.
Stories have a remarkable ability to cut through the clutter and confusion and bring clarity to our hearts and minds. Stories remind us of our hopes, values, and dreams. They sneak beyond the barriers of our prejudices to soften our hearts to receive the truth. Great periods in history emerge when great stories are told and lived. Stories are history that form the future; they are prophecies set in the past.
Never underestimate the importance of stories. They play a crucial role in the life of a person and in the life of a society. They are as essential as the air we breathe and the water we drink. Stories captivate our imaginations, enchant our minds, and empower our spirits. They introduce us to whom we are and who are capable of beings. Stories change our lives.
If you wish to poison a nation, poison the stories that nation listens to. If you wish to win people over to your team or to your point of view, do not go to war or argue with them ── tell them a story.
All great leaders understand the persuasive and inspirational power of stories. When did you last hear a great speech that didn't contain a story?
A story can do anything: win a war, lose a war, heal the sick, encourage the discouraged, comfort the oppressed, inspire a revolution, transform an enemy into a friend, elevate the consciousness of the people, build empires, inspire love, even reshape the spiritual temperament of a whole age.
65 per cent of the Gospels are stories, or parables. 100 per cent of the Gospels is the story of Jesus Christ ── and it is the most influenctial story over told.
The future belongs to the story tellers, and we are the story tellers. What type of stories are we telling? Because I can promise you with absolute certitude that the stories we tell today are forming the future.
‘’•─“”
____________________________________
Edward O. Wilson; Genesis : the deep origin of societies, written by Edward O. Wilson; illustrated by Debby Cotter Kaspari., [2019]
p.9
All questions of philosophy that address the human condition come down to three:
what are we,
what created us, and
what do we wish ultimately to become.
The all-important answer to the third question, the destiny we seek, requires an accurate answer to the first two. By and large, philosophers have lacked confirmable answers to the first two questions, which concern the deep prehuman and human past, thereby remaining unable to answer the third question, which addresses the human future.
As I now approach the end of a long career studying the biology of social behavior in animals and humans, I've come better to understand why these existential questions defy introspection by even the wisest of thinkers, and, more importantly, why they have been so easily enslaved by religious and political dogma.
p.10
For most of history, organized religions have claimed sovereignty over the meaning of human existence. For their founders and leaders the enigma has been relatively easy to solve. The gods put us on Earth, and they told us how to behave.
Why should people around the world continue to believe one fantasy over another out of the more than four thousand that exist on Earth? The answer is tribalism, and, as I will show, tribalism is one consequence of the way humanity originated. Each of the organized or otherwise public religions as well as scores of religion-like ideologies defines a tribe, a tightly knit group of people joined by a particular story. The history and moral lessons it contains, often colorful, even bizarre in content, are accepted as basically unalterable and, more importantly, superior to all competing stories. The members of the tribe are inspired by the special status the story gives them, not just on this planet but on all other of the multitude of planets in each of the trillion galaxies estimated to compose the known universe.
And best of all, cosmic faith is the bargain price asked for guaranteed personal immortality.
pp.10─11
In The Descent of Man (1871), Charles Darwin brought the whole subject into the purview of science by suggesting that humanity descended from African apes. Shocking as that was at the time, and still unacceptable to many, the hypothesis has none-the-less proved correct. An understanding of how the great transition from ape to human occurred has been steadily improved since, chiefly by a consortium of researchers in five modern disciplines: paleontology, anthropolgy, psychology, evolutionary biology, and neuroscience. As a result of the combined labors of scholars in these disciplines we have today an increasingly clear picture of the real creation story. We know a good deal about how humanity was born, and when, and how.
p.11
This factual story of the creation has turned out to be vastly different from that first believed not just by theologians but also by most scientists and philosophers. It fits the evolutionary histories of other, nonhuman lines, of which seventeen (17) have so far been found to possess advanced societies based on altruism and cooperation. These are the subjects of the sections immediately to follow.
(Wilson, Edward O., author.
Kaspari, Debby Cotter, illustrator.
Genesis : the deep origin of societies / Edward O. Wilson; illustrated by Debby Cotter Kaspari.
other titles: Deep origin of societies
[2019]
subjects: animal behavior. | behavior evolution. | behavior genetics.
LCC QL751 .W55 2019
DDC 591.5──dc23
https://lccn.loc.gov/2018050101
)
____________________________________
Children of her people
By Anne Cameron
For a story to be told, it must be told properly, and to tell a story properly, it must be told with respect. A story properly told will contain an old story, a new story, a message, and an example from the past for those who will come in the future.
This does not mean a properly told story will contain what the European dominant ideology would refer to as a moral!
The history of this continent has not been told properly, and what has been told improperly has been told without respect, and without truth. The history of this continent, improperly and untruthfully told, has become a lie, and on that lie a society has been based which yearns for something most of us have never known in our lifetimes.
We like to convince ourselves our society is peaceful, built of principles of liberty and justice and kindhearted liberal concern for our neighbours. We like to convince ourselves and our children we are a peace-loving people who have never oppressed or invaded any other nation--and yet how else did we get here if not by invading, oppressing, and exterminating our indigenous cousins?
"Oh," we say, "why bring up all those mistakes of the past? What's done is done and can't be undone, so let us move forward and put behind us all the sorrow." Easy to say when it isn't your sorrow. Easy to say when it wasn't your great grandmother who became the last of what had once been a numerous, healthy, and happy family! A society which does not remember and learn from the mistakes of the past is a society which takes no responsibility and thus will repeat those mistakes of the past.
History, as it has been taught to us, is the lie the conquerors force down the throats of the children of the disposessed. So if lies must be told, let them at least be told with love, let them at least contain some magic. After all, what is a story but a magic lie?
copyright © 1987 Anne Cameron
____________________________________
•─ my theory about [stories] as (is) both our savior and our doom?
Olaf: my theory about advancing technologies as (is) both our savior and our doom?
source:
Frozen II, disney, DVD, 2020
____________________________________
•─ my theory about [nature and the natural world] as (is) both our savior and our doom?
Olaf: my theory about advancing technologies as (is) both our savior and our doom?
source:
Frozen II, disney, DVD, 2020
____________________________________
١ ٢ ٣ ٤ ٥ ٦ ٧ ٨ ٩ ٠
there were three ways in which humans represented the world:
(or, better, three ways of capturing experiences and action that we call “reality”)
• One was by enaction;
• action routines (dance, creature of habit, ritual, theatre, play, workshop, ...)
• a second through imagery;
• in pictures (scribble, sketching, drawing, story board, comic books, movies, films)
• and a third through constructing symbolic systems.
• in symbols (written language, sign, ...)
• story telling, oral tradition, camp fire, radio, podcast, ???
◇ The shift in perception_X redefines “knowledge.”
(a.) Acting involves changing our behavior,
(b.) Reframing involves changing our thinking, and
(c.) Transforming involves changing our perceptions_A.
____________________________________
Edward O. Wilson, The origins of creativity, 2017
pp.23─24
In the evening the mood relaxes. In the chiaroscuro firelight, the talk turns to story telling, which drifts easily into singing, dancing, and religious ceremonies. Storytelling, especially among the men, turns frequently to sucessful hunts and epic adventures, their dominant daytime activity.
As described by Elizabeth Marshall Thomas in her 2006 classic The old way : a story of the first people, the stories are (or once were) commonly mythlike accounts of actual hunts. They were recited over and over, by men in special voices, becoming almost chants, to which everyone listened. There follows one such story, in the actual words of the hunter, of how an antelope is taken down by a poison arrow. I especially like it, even in full translation, because it could be a performance made one hundred thousand years earlier. As paleontologists reconstruct extinct animal species from skeletons, it seems possible to reconstruct ancient social life from such least evolved progenitors.
Ai! What? Is that an ear? Yes, an ear! There's his ear against the sky, he's in bushes, just there, the edge of the bushes. I watch it. Yes, it moves, he turns a little, a little, hi! he lifts his head, he's worried, he sniffs, he knows! He looks, I'm down low, down low, just very quiet, down low, he doesn't see me! He's safe, he thinks. He turns around. I am behind him. HE creep forward, eh! I creep I creep, I am just that far, eh! just that from me to there, quiet, quiet, I'm quiet, I'm slow, I have my bow, I set the arrow. Ai! I shoot. Waugh! I hit him! He jumps. Ha ha! He jumps! He runs. He's gone! I shot him. Right here, just here the arrow went in. He jumped, he run that way, going that way, but I got him.
Storytelling, including especially recorded tales of successful hunts and epic adventures, consumed 6 percent of the overall recorded time during the day, but they consumed 81 per cent of the evening. The overall effect was to convey the big picture of the group's existence. It united them into a rule-based community with a single culture.
Edward O. Wilson, The origins of creativity, 2017
____________________________________
Frankor Minirth, Paul Meier, Stephen Arterburn, The complete life encyclopedia : a Minirth Meier new life family resource, 1995
pp.389-390
p.389
Deal with your parents' incomplete passages.
Deal with your parents' incomplete passages. As we were growing up in our parents' home, we absorbed attitudes and impressions about marriage and husband-wife roles from their example. We assume that our attitudes about marriage (which largely reflect the attitudes of our parents) are “normal” because those attitudes are the only ones we've ever known. Suddenly, we are thrown into a sink-or-swim situation with another person from another family background with a whole different set of attitudes that he or she thinks are “normal” but that we regard as “weird”.
p.389-390
It's time to reconsider, and to take a hard look at the attitudes and impressions we have absorbed by osmosis from our families of origin.
p.390
What passages or task did our parents fail to complete? Did they fail to overcome the tendency to jockey for control? Did they fail to learn how to make responsible choices? Did they fail to maintain individual identities? Fail to practice forgiveness? Unless you become consciously aware of these passages in your parents' life where they got stuck or derailed, you are likely to repeat their pattern.
p.390
What self-defeating attitudes did you absorb your parents? “Men don't show emotion or say ‘I love you.’” “Women can't be trusted with money.” “Sex is a weapon in the battle of the sexes.” “Keep your man on a short leash; men can't be trusted.” Your parents' attitudes were probably never verbalized when you were growing up, but they were modeled, and you absorbed them unconsciously and uncritically. Now they have to be dug up like land mines, one by one, so that they can be defused. If you don't, they will continue to explode unexpectedly throughout your marriage, wounding both you and your spouse.
p.390
What's more, some of those land mines will still be lying around for your children to discover.
p.390
A key principle of this passage of marriage is [‘]All incomplete passages become unfinished business for the next generation.[’] If your parents left any unfinished business for you to deal with, then finish it now. Resolve these old issues in your present-day marriage, and make a commitment not to pass them on to your own children.
(The complete life encyclopedia : a Minirth Meier new life family resource / Frank Minirth, Paul Meier, Stephen Arterburn, 1. mental health ── religious aspects ── christianity ── encyclopedias., BT732.4.M55 1995, 613──dc20, )
____________________________________
Tell to win, written by Peter Guber, [2011]
p. vii (7)
There's a treasure to be discovered and it's inside you. Build into your DNA is humanity's ten thousand plus years of telling and listening to oral stories.
This veneration of story is a force so powerful and enduring that it has shaped cultures, religions, whole civilizations.
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
p. 62-63
back stories
time bombs or buried treasure
Deepak Chopra
Back stories emerge out of our memories of past experiences, imagination, and desires.
"You create stories around these thoughts. Then you live out those stories and you call it life."
Back stories actually can define a person's future, "because we're conditioned by experience to repeat out stories"
Depending on the nature of those stories, this repetition can produce positive or negative results.
p. 63-64
Finds a way to tell a new story
This doesn't mean changing the experience on which the story is based.
It means mentally creating a new context and a new meaning that breaks the pattern and [the] hold of the back story.
The new story then serves as "a bridge from what is to what could be."
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
Our back stories are always lurking under the surface poised to spring into action.
If we actively confront them, then we can convert even the most dangerous time bomb into valuable treasures.
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
p.69
If the lion does not tell his story, the hunter will
--an African saying
p. 71-72
Those who do not have power over the story that dominates their lives, the power to recall it, rethink it, deconstruct it, joke about it, and change it as times change, truly are powerless, because they can not think new thoughts.
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
p. 79
own your back story so it doesn't sabotage you when you tell your front story
* the story that runs your story
* be active in your own rescue; confront the stories that others are telling about you.
p. 85
Great music can encode the whole story of a film and give it emotional unity
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
purpose
the reason for telling a story
Cracking the Code, Thom Hartmann,
Chapter 2 cracking the story code 33
Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind.
--Rudyard Kipling
Trojan Horse
in Virgil's famous line "Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes"
(I fear Greeks even those bearing gifts)
which became known as 'beware of Greeks bearing gifts,"
head fake
hidden message inside a story
p. 41-42
Chris Anderson
"Our hunger, our appetite for stories for beginning, middle, and end -- is a bug in our brain."
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
p.45
Michael Wesch
"human meaning seeking
We can't remember anything without giving meaning to it."
(Tell to win, Peter Guber, 2011)
Tell to win, written by Peter Guber, [2011]
____________________________________
____________________________________
Joshua M. Brown, Backstage wall street, 2012
[pp.165-166]
... People love stories, and they react to them frequently.
The need for a narrative or metaphorical connection is as old as the human race itself. The Neolithic cave paintings found across Western Europe are one of the earliest examples of the storytelling tradition and its intertwined relationship with survival itself. The paintings tell of how the clan is fed and nourished on the animals it hunts; this is an instruction manual in story form using the very earliest written language--pictures.
To a large extent, the human mind is hardwired for story; it is the primary way in which we understand the world and pass on what we've learned to future generations. And not any story will resonate; there are very specific story structures that effect us all in a primal way. It is no coincidence that in every part of the world, there is some significant and revered version of one of the following seven story arcs or plots:
1. overcoming te monster
2. rags to riches
3. the quest
4. voyage and return
5. comedy
6. tragedy
7. rebirth or transformation
[p.166]
Examples of each of these seven arcs had been independently developed by ancient cultures with absolutely no contact with one another whatsoever. This doesn't happen by accident.
Christopher Booker spent 30 years researching his seminal 2005 book on the subject, 'The Seven Basic Plots'. The psycho-analyst Carl Jung took a shot at this idea, calling these archetypal stories the "the development and integration of the mature self." Joseph Campbell has also written hero myth types ultimately on the subject, his dissection of the classic hero myth types ultimately inspiring George Lucas to combine them all into the story for the Star War movies.
And without even trying, you can see how adroitly these seven basic story types have been adapted by the investment industry in order to market and sell product: 'Overcoming the monster' with inflation-proof bonds, porfolio insurance, and principal-protected index funds. The 'rags to riches' promises of being in on the penny stock that explodes by 1,000 per cent or investing in the newest category of hot growth funds. A 'voyage' to the emerging market stocks and bonds that simply must be a part of every portfolio. The 'rebirth' of a corporate turnaround stock and the 'transformational' opportunities to be exploited in the technology sector.
Wall street is extra-ordinarily adept at selling through story, and when no story is immediately apparent, it will create one out of thin air. Themes sell funds and stocks and strategies. Themes get people to pay attention to television appearances and newsletters. They get investors talking to each other, which sells even more stuff. Themes are the alpha and omega of Wall Streets every existence; they are the hook that pulls in the Main Street money no matter how many of them have been total busts. <skip one sentence>
[p.167]
But when it comes to thematic investing, most of the money is made by those who germinate the very concept itself, positioning early and then spinning the yarn while encouraging its dissemination.
[p.170]
... By 2010, gold had been outperforming virtually every other asset class on the menu for a decade. As it became apparent to ordinary investors that central banks around the world were in a "currency race to zero," protecting themselves from inflation ... . ([ I can not tell you or explain why, however, real physical gold continues to be inflation hedge against holding paper money or note. ])
[p.164]
And it is not just product that needs to be sold. Strategies have received their own stories as well. “Buy and hold” is one of the greatest stories ever told, this despite the fact that in the past century we've seen 25 cyclical bear markets and two bone-crushing secular bear markets. Had you brought and held equities in the late 1920s, you would not have been back to breakeven until the early 1950s. A basket of stocks brought in 1966 would have been worth the same nominal dollar amount 16 years later in 1982. But buy and hold means captive pools of asset to assess steady fees from, and so buy and hold is ingrained in the Wall Street sales pitch to America. [...] Unfortunately for the buy-and-hold faithful, we now find ourselves experiencing the so-called hundred-year storm about every seven years these days.
[pp.xix-xx]
Lights, Camera, Finance!
...
According to BusinessWeek, the securities industry spends $15 billion a year advertising ... . To put that number in perspective, the alcohol and beer industry spends ... $2 billion per year. [...]
There is a common theme that runs through almost all investment marketing: “We know what we're doing in the market.”
This would be fabulous if true; unfortunately, by definition it's impossible. A market is made up of buyers and sellers, both of whom believe they are on the right side of a given purchase or sale. They cannot both be right. Now we can take a detour and say that a buyer may be wrong short-term but absolutely right long-term, but the advertising we're discussing doesn't merit quite that degree of nuance. After all, what brokerage ads are meant to convey is that the firms cannot possibly be wrong because even when they are wrong, they are still right. Speaking of Lewis Carroll, somewhere the Red Queen is smiling down on this ubiquitous marketing message with immense, almost maternal pride.
Well, pardon me for acting as the wrench that fate has sent to be thrown into the works, so to speak. Excuse me for having heard (and written) every pitch and every sales rap that's ever been uttered. Forgive me for having made the decision to begin blogging as a human being, and by doing so, to begin pulling back the curtain.
Not only have I seen these films before, I've been on the studio back lot during their production. I've met the director and have hung out with the actors in their trailer between takes. I know where the makeup artist parks her car each morning and which screenplays are most in need of a rewrite. I know what dishes craft services is putting out for lunch and which sequels were only green-lit because the studio knows you're going to buy a ticket.
Wall Street has long incorporated the most effective showbiz techniques into its repertoire. And while you may have gotten a peek backstage before, what I'm about to show you will be entirely new and somewhat revelatory.
Welcome to the reality behind all the false glamour, contrived accuracy, and manufactured confidence. Welcome to a world where institution feign perfection and human beings pretend an omni-potent mastery over the random and uncontrollable.
This is your guided tour.
('backstage wall street : an insider's guide to knowing who to trust, who to run from, and how to maximize your investments', Joshua M. Brown (2012), copyright © 2012, [332.6097 Brown], )
(Brown, Joshua M.; 'backstage wall street', copyright © 2012, publisher McGraw-Hill Companies, [332.6097 Brown], pp.165-166)
____________________________________
Edward O. Wilson, The origins of creativity, 2017
p.5
The full explaination of any biological phenomenon, including creativity in both science and the humanities, engages three level of thoughts.
First, for any conceivable living entity or process ── a bird taking flight, a lily growing toward the sun, your reading of this sentence ── the first inquiry must be, What is it?
Provide the structure and functions that define the phenomenon. If it involves music or theater, perform it.
The second level is the question, How was it put together? What made it come into existence? What were the events that resulted in the conditions of its origin, whether ten seconds or a thousand years ago?
The third and final level is, Why do the phenomenon and its preconditions exist in the first place? Why not a different mode of evolution not present on this planet that might have produced a different kind of thinking brain?
Scientists study living phenomena at all three of these levels. As a rule, they choose entities and processes that engage the what, how, and why in whatever details and dimension that lies within their reach.
Biologists, however, perhaps even more than other scientists, feel it necessary to seek cause and effect at all three levels. The causes that bring about a living phenonmenon, such as the flight of a bird or our perception of a flower's colors, are called proximate causes.
pp.5─6
The events that guided the evolution of the phenonmenon to its present state are called ultimate causes. Proximate causes are the what and how of a full explanation. Ultimate causes are the why.
Edward O. Wilson, The origins of creativity, 2017
____________________________________
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015,
p.72
creation of a net assessment group (NAG)
p.73
“diagnosis of problems and opportunities, rather than recommended actions”.
For Marshall, the focus on diagnosis rather than solutions was especially significant.149
basis for diagnosis.
do we have problems?
if so, how big is it?
is it getting worse or better?
what are the underlying causes?
p.83
Pedagogically, Marshall believes that allowing others to work out how to do a net assessment is preferrable to him trying to explain it to them.
that of a shepherd guiding others' intellectual growth to help them arrive at their own conclusions through an intensive process.6
It must be learned experientially.
p.38
intellectual comfort zones rather than address harder questions.
pp.38-39
Observing this approach reinforced an enduring lesson for Marshall: mediocre answers to good questions were more important and useful than splendid answers to poor questions.114
p.37
Kelly AFB in San Antonio, where the Air Force conducted most of its COMINT analysis.109
p.38
Loftus and Marshall's rare access to COMINT helped them understand this disconnect, though they could not share this information to shatter their colleagues' illusions.
source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf
Schutte, John M., 1976
Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.
UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
local filename: casting net assessment.txt
alternative short-cut: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war (2)
____________________________________
p.38
intellectual comfort zones rather than address harder questions.
____________________________________
Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008
p.201
to draw the lines between environmental and economic interests.
p.202
His staff scouted ahead trying to find out who had the big picture on Klamath.
p.203
Cheney to Sue Ellen Wooldridge, over a phone call
“If we're going to put a bunch of farmers out of business, we've got a problem. We've got a massive problem.”
p.203
“I never got any directives”, Wooldrige said, only questions:
“What is the status?
What is happening?
What decisions do you need to make?
What discretion do you have?”
(Angler: the Cheney vice presidency, Barton Gellman, 2008, )
____________________________________
written by James Bamford (The puzzle palace), 1982
pp.377-378
“HUMINT [Human Intelligence] is subject to all of the mental aberrations of the source as well as the interpreter of the source,” Lieutenant General Marshall S. Carter once explained. “SIGINT isn't. SIGINT has technical aberrations which give it away almost immediately if it does not have bona fides, if it is not legitimate. A good analyst can tell very, very quickly whether this is an attempt at disinformation, at confusion, from SIGINT. You can't do that from HUMINT; you don't have the bona fides ── what are his sources? He may be the source, but what are his sources?”
Having served as deputy director of the CIA and director of the NSA, Carter was one of the very few people to have been intimately associated with both collection systems, and in his opinion SIGINT won by a wavelength. “Photo interpretation,” he explained, “can in some cases be misinterpreted by the reader or intentionally confused by the maker in the first place ── camouflage, this sort of thing. SIGINT is the one that is immediate, right now. Photo interpretation, yes, to some extent, but you still have to say, ‘Is that really a fake, have they confused it?’ It is better than HUMINT, it is more rapid than HUMINT [but] SIGINT is right now; its bona fides are there the minute you get it.”
____________________________________
p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
The technical lectures
In lecture 1, “controlled and uncontrolled variation”, Deming introduced the Shewhart statistical control chart as a tool for bringing a production process into control. He set the tone for this lecture with the opening remark, “Variability is a rule in nature. Repetitions of any procedure will produce variable results.”
Deming followed with definitions of controlled and uncontrolled variation, principally in terms of whether it is (controlled variation) or is not (uncontrolled variation) profitable to try to determine the causes. This economic definition is the same spirit as that offered in the original book of Shewhart (1931). Deming then called uncontrolled
variation a type of “trouble”, and introduced the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.” Deming offered the control chart as the most “economical solution” to this problem.
source:
what deming told the Japanese in 1950
DeminginJapanin1950.pdf
Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university
QMJ 94 Fall
The primary source documents are the published lecture transcripts that Deming considered authentic.
The transcripts how that Deming introduced to the Japanese a product design cycle of Shewhart that is distinct from the management process that the Japanese later came to call the plan-do-check-act cycle.
Deming cycle of the plan-do-check-act (PDCA) cycle development, variation, evolution, iteration
Figure 2 The Deming/Shewhart design cycle (Deming 1951), p.14
Figure 3 The Deming PDSA cycle (Deming 1986)., p.15
Figure 4 The Mizuno PDCA control circle (Mizuno 1984), p.16
____________________________________
W. Edwards Deming., The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality, 2013
pp.248─249
Special causes of variation
The question is whether the variation arises from a special cause, or from common causes. A point outside the limits on a control chart indicates the existience of a special cause. Special causes are what Shewhart called assignable causes. The name is not important; the concept is.
Statistical techniques, based as they are on the theory of probability, enable us to govern the risk of being wrong in the interpretation of a test. Statistical techniques defend us, almost unerringly, against the costly and demoralizing practice of blaming variability and rejections on to the wrong person or machine. At the same time, they detect almost unerringly the existence of a special cause when it is worth searching for.
p.251
there is a difference; the only question is how big is the difference?
p.253
Our words theory and theater come from the Greek ... to see, to understand
p.266
The economics of a proper sample design.
The statistician does not take unnecessary chances with sampling errors; he cannot leave them to judgment. He has them under control and knows how much it will cost to reduce them to any desired degree. He knows that reliability beyond what can actually be utilized in formulating decisions on the basis of the data is sheer waste of resources. His guiding philosophy is a very practical one, namely, to minimize in the long run, the net losses arising from two kinds of mistakes.
p.300
Shewhart charts were taught in Japan as statistical tools for the economic detection of the existence of special cause of variation, not as tools that actually find the cause.
(The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality / by W. Edwards Deming., 1. total quality management., 2. leadership.,
3. industrial management., HD62.15.D459 2013, 658.4'092--dc23, edited by Joyce Nilsson Orsini, Ph.D., [2013])
____________________________________
the first private awareness that human error is a symptom of trouble deeper inside a system, and to explain that failure, do not try to find where the people went wrong; instead, find out how people's assessments and actions made sense at the time, given the circumstances that surrounded them; What were they thinking? - “The reconstruction of the mindset begins not with the mind. It begins with the circumstances in which the mind found itself.”, Dekker (2002);--Heather Parker, Transport Canada slide presentation, titled, Investigating and Analysing Human and Organizational Factors, 2006-11-09;
____________________________________
James C. Collins and Wiliam C. Lazier, Beyond entrepreneurship, 1992 [ ]
<recommended by Reed Hasting, Netflix CEO, during a Stanford Graduate Business school award>
read first 86 pages
<Reed Hasting said that he would take out this book and read the first 86 pages once every year>
p.48
core values and beliefs --> purpose --> mission --> strategy --> tactics
p.71
discovering purpose using the "five whys"
p.71
how the five whys lead from products to Patagonia's purpose
p.73
purpose is a motivating factor, ...
p.74
... a mission should be achievable ...
A good mission has a finish line--you must be able to know when you've done it, like the moon mission or a mountain top.
p.96
Strategy is how you will achieve the company mission.
"This is how we will achieve our mission." That, in a nutshell, is strategy.
p.79
four types of mission
1. targeting
2. common enemy
3. role model
4. internal transformation
(Collins, James C. (James Charles), Beyond entrepreneurship : turning your business into an enduring great company / James C. Collins and Wiliam C. Lazier., 1. small business-management., 2. organizational effectiveness., HD62.7.C645 1992, 658.4--dc20, 1992, )
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
•── “false positives.” : The first error is overdiagnosis--when an individual tests positive in the test but does not have cancer. Such individuals are called “false positives.” Men and women who falsely test positive find themselves trapped in the punitive stigma of cancer, the familiar cycle of anxiety and terror (and the desire to “do something”) that precipitates further testing and invasive treatment., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
• false
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
- fishing expedition
by Anthony Lane
p.65
To be accused of an offense that you haven't committed is a terrible slur, and it can lead to a galling miscarriage of justice [[ ? ]]. To be innocent of an offense and yet to confess your guilt ─ not for pathological reasons but purely to get ahead in the world ─ takes a certain panache.
(The current cinema, Over the limit, "Ferrari" and "The crime is mine", The new yorkers, January 1 & 8, 2024., p.65)
•── “false negatives” : The mirror image of overdiagnosis is underdiagnosis--an error in which a patient truly has cancer but does not test positive for it. Underdiagnosis falsely reassures patients of their freedom from disease. These men and women (“false negatives” in the jargon of epidemiology) enter a different punitive cycle--of despair, shock, and betrayal--once their disease, undetected by the screening test, is eventually uncovered when it becomes symptomatic., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
• false
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
- neglect
by Anthony Lane
p.65
To be accused of an offense that you haven't committed is a terrible slur, and it can lead to a galling miscarriage of justice. To be innocent of an offense and yet to confess your guilt ─ not for pathological reasons but purely to get ahead in the world ─ takes a certain panache [[ ?? ]].
(The current cinema, Over the limit, "Ferrari" and "The crime is mine", The new yorkers, January 1 & 8, 2024., p.65)
Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010 [ ]
pp.291-292
Suppose a new test has been invented in the laboratory to detect an early, presympotamic stage of a particular form of cancer, say, the level of a protein secreted by cancer cells into the serum. The first challenge for such a test is technical: its performance in the real world. Epidemiologists think of screening tests as possessing two characteristic performance errors. The first error is overdiagnosis--when an individual tests positive in the test but does not have cancer. Such individuals are called “false positives.” Men and women who falsely test positive find themselves trapped in the punitive stigma of cancer, the familiar cycle of anxiety and terror (and the desire to “do something”) that precipitates further testing and invasive treatment.
([ see pregnancy test ])
The mirror image of overdiagnosis is underdiagnosis--an error in which a patient truly has cancer but does not test positive for it. Underdiagnosis falsely reassures patients of their freedom from disease. These men and women (“false negatives” in the jargon of epidemiology) enter a different punitive cycle--of despair, shock, and betrayal--once their disease, undetected by the screening test, is eventually uncovered when it becomes symptomatic.
The trouble is that overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis are often intrinsically conjoined, locked perpetually on two ends of a seesaw. Screening tests that strive to limit overdiagnosis--by narrowing the criteria by which patients are classified as positive--often pay the price of increasing underdiagnosis because they miss patients that lie in the gray zone between positive and negative. An example helps to illustrate this tradeoff. Suppose--to use Egan's vivid metaphor--a spider is trying to invent a perfect web to capture flies out of the air. Increasing the density of that web, she finds, certainly increases the chances of capturing junk and debris floating through the air (false positives). Making the web less dense, in contrast, decreases the chances of catching real prey, but every time something is captured, chances are higher that it is a fly. In cancer, where both overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis come at high costs, finding that exquisite balance is often impossible. We want every cancer test to operate with perfect specificity and sensitivity. But the technologies for screening are not perfect. Screening tests thus routinely fail because they cannot even cross this preliminary hurdle--the rate of over- or underdiagnosis is unacceptably high.
(The emperor of all maladies : a biography of cancer, Siddhartha Mukherjee, 2010, )
____________________________________
the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
“Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ...”
“failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
false h 4 t a m a wnte
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”
false f 2 h 4 t a n t a wtde
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”
• false - The first error is over diagnosis
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• false - under diagnosis
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• The first error is [over diagnosis]. This is refer to as
“false positives” -- when during the assessment, evaluation, determination, investigation process (aedip), a problem is detected, but there is no problem.
- “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
• the other type of error is [under diagnosis]. This is
refer to as “false negatives” -- an error in which truly there is a problem, but it was not detected (detection process, detective, investigator); and therefore, nothing is done to address the situation for various reasons and the reasoning process explanation (explanation of the reasoning process), after the fact when post mortem is performed.
- “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”,
what deming told the Japanese in 1950, DeminginJapanin1950.pdf, Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university, p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
The technical lectures
In lecture 1, “controlled and uncontrolled variation”, Deming introduced the Shewhart statistical control chart as a tool for bringing a production process into control. He set the tone for this lecture with the opening remark, “Variability is a rule in nature. Repetitions of any procedure will produce variable results.”
Deming followed with definitions of controlled and uncontrolled variation, principally in terms of whether it is (controlled variation) or is not (uncontrolled variation) profitable to try to determine the causes. This economic definition is the same spirit as that offered in the original book of Shewhart (1931). Deming then called uncontrolled
variation a type of “trouble”, and introduced the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.” Deming offered the control chart as the most “economical solution” to this problem.
source:
what deming told the Japanese in 1950
DeminginJapanin1950.pdf
Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university
QMJ 94 Fall
https://curiouscat.com/management/deming/deming-1950-japan-speech-mt-hakone
____________________________________
Niel Postman, Amusing ourselves to death : public discourse in the age of show business, new introduction by Andrew Postman [2005], [1985]
p.102
If on television, credibility replaces reality as the decisive test of truth-telling, political leaders need not trouble themselves very much with reality provided their performances consistently generate a sense of verisimilitude.
p.102
For the alternative possibilities are that one may look like a liar but be telling the truth; or even worse, look like a truth-teller but in fact be lying.
(Amusing ourselves to death./ Niel Postman, bibliography: p. 173., includes index., 1. mass media ── influence., P94.P63 1986, 302.2'34, 86-9513, A section of this book was supported by a commission from the Annenberg scholars program, Annenberg school of communications, university of southern california. SPecifically, portions of chapters six and seven formed part of a paper delivered at the scholars conference, “Creating meaning : literacies of our time”, February 1984., [1985] )
____________________________________
── There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement.
Edward de Bono, Lateral Thinking: a textbook of creativity, 1970, 1977, 1990
── the problem of no problem. One is blocked by the adequacy of the present arrangement from moving to a much better one.
── There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement.
pp.41-42
Problem solving
A problem does not have to be presented in a formal manner nor is it a matter for pencil and paper working out. A problem is simply the difference between what one has and what one wants. It may be a matter of avoiding something, of getting something, of getting rid of something, of getting to know what one wants.
There are three-types of problem:
• The first type of problem requires for its solution more information or better techniques for handling information.
• The second type of problem requires no new information but a rearrangement of information already available: an insight restructuring.
• The third type of problem is the problem of no problem. One is blocked by the adequacy of the present arrangement from moving to a much better one. There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement. The problem is to realize that ‘there is a problem’ to realize that ‘things can be improved’ and to define ‘this realization as a problem’.
The first type of problem can be solved by vertical thinking. The second and third type of problem require lateral thinking for their solution.
p.30
Vertical thinking is analytical, lateral thinking is provocative
One may consider three different attitude to the remark of a student who had come to the conclusion: “Ulysses was a hypocrite.”
1. “You are wrong, Ulysses was not a hypocrite.”
2. “How very interesting, tell me how you reached that conclusion.”
3. “very well. What happens next? How are you going to go forward from that idea?”
In order to be able to use provocative qualities of lateral thinking one must also be able to follow up with the selective qualities of vertical thinking.
p.35
Lateral thinking is a description of a process not of a result.
pp.35-36
It is always possible to describe a logical pathway in hindsight once a solution is spelled out. But being able to reach that solution by means of this hindsight pathway is another matter. One can demonstrate this quite simply by offering certain problems which are difficult to solve and yet when solved, the solution is obvious. In such cases, it is impossible to suppose that what make the problem difficult was lack of the elementary logic required.
It is characteristic of insight solutions and new ideas that they should be obvious after they have been found. In itself, this shows how insufficient logic is in practice, otherwise such simple solutions must have occurred much earlier.
p.36
In practical terms however, it is quite obvious that the hindsight demonstration of a logical pathway does not indicate that the solution would have been reached in this way.
p.37
Lateral thinking is more concerned with concept breaking, with provocation and disruption in order to allow the mind to restructure patterns.
p.37
There is nothing mysterious about lateral thinking. It is a way of handling information.
(Edward de Bono, Lateral Thinking: a textbook of creativity, 1970, 1977, 1990, )
____________________________________
·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα πόλλ' οἶδ' ἀλώπηξ,ἀλλ' ἐχῖνος ἓν μέγα
____________________________________
*2 “This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
(Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)
“This [copy & paste reference note] is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is [archive] with the understanding that the [researcher, investigator] is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.
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We offer it for informative purposes to help cope with health situations and do not claim this book furnishes information as to an effective treatment or cure of the disease discussed ─ according to currently accepted medical opinion.
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